Twelfth District Beige Book

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat subdued but largely stable during the mid-May to June reporting period. Employment levels were slightly lower on net with more firms under a hiring freeze and using attrition and layoffs to reduce headcount. Wages continued to grow at a slight pace, and prices rose modestly. Retail sales expanded modestly, and activity in consumer and business services eased. Activity in manufacturing and the residential real estate market weakened somewhat. Conditions in agriculture, commercial real estate, and the financial sector were largely unchanged and deteriorated further in the nonprofit sector. Looking ahead, contacts reported making contingency plans in response to economic uncertainty and an expected pickup in inflation.

Economic activity in the Twelfth District slowed slightly during the April to mid-May reporting period. Employment levels were generally stable amid some layoffs and attrition without replacement. Wages were up slightly, and prices across industries rose modestly. Retail sales and demand for consumer and business services softened somewhat. Manufacturing activity declined slightly and conditions in agriculture and resource-related sectors weakened somewhat. Conditions in residential and commercial real estate markets softened slightly, while financial sector conditions were largely unchanged. Conditions weakened further in community support and services amid declines in funding and sustained demand. Looking forward, contacts expressed a slightly more positive outlook on the economy relative to the prior reporting period, although the overall expectations for economic conditions continued to be generally downtrodden.

Economic activity in the Twelfth District ticked down during the January to mid-February reporting period. Employment levels were generally stable, and labor availability continued to improve. Wages grew slightly in recent weeks, and prices rose slightly overall. Retail sales fell modestly, and demand for consumer and business services weakened a bit. Manufacturing activity improved somewhat, while conditions in the agriculture and resource-related sectors weakened slightly. Conditions in the residential real estate sector softened slightly on net. Lending activity varied across business lines but was largely unchanged on balance. Overall conditions of community organizations and small businesses weakened. Wildfire recovery efforts were reportedly boosted by increased donations and improved coordination among individuals and institutions. Contacts’ economic outlook worsened somewhat relative to the prior reporting period.

Economic activity in the Twelfth District expanded slightly during the mid-November through December reporting period. Employment levels were largely unchanged, and employee retention improved further. Wages were up slightly overall, and year-end pay increases were in line with historical averages. Price levels were generally stable in recent weeks. Retail sales grew modestly as contacts reported a solid holiday shopping season. Consumer and business services sectors saw steady to slightly higher activity over the reporting period. Manufacturing activity varied by product category, while conditions in the agriculture and resource-related sectors softened slightly. Residential real estate markets were stable overall, and commercial real estate conditions were mixed. Lending activity was steady. Demand for services related to affordable housing, food assistance, and mental health remained high from communities across the District. Contacts’ economic outlook worsened slightly relative to the prior reporting period.